Global| Feb 03 2005US Factory Sector Shipments & Orders Surged in 2004
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Shipments from the US factory sector rose 0.9% in December, capping off a year of 10.4% growth which was the strongest in twenty years. Some of that strength is exaggerated by a 38.0% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries, but [...]
Shipments from the US factory sector rose 0.9% in December, capping off a year of 10.4% growth which was the strongest in twenty years. Some of that strength is exaggerated by a 38.0% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries, but less oil factory shipments still rose a robust 8.8%.
Orders to the factory sector added 0.3% in December to the 1.4% spike the prior month and for the year surged 10.8%. Less oil orders rose 9.2% last year. The advance report of a 0.6% gain in durable goods orders in December was revised to 1.1% (9.3% y/y) as the increase in nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft was revised up to 2.5% from 1.8%.
Unfilled orders added 0.6% to the 1.1% jump in November. Supply bottlenecks perhaps eased slightly as indicated by a lower ratio of unfilled orders to shipments for durables, however the ISM index of vendor performance showed slower delivery speeds.
Factory inventories fell 0.1% in December led down by a 9.1% (+15.2% y/y) drop in petroleum inventories. Less petroleum, inventories rose 0.3% (7.0% y/y) following a 0.9% increase in November.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.1% | 1.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| New Orders | 0.3% | 1.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.7% | -1.9% |
| Shipments | 0.9% | 0.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 2.6% | -2.0% |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.6% | 1.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 4.2% | -6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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