Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Dec 19 2013

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Surge With Seasonal Quirks

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 379,000 last week (3.6% y/y) following 369,000 claims during the week ended December 7, revised from 368,000. The rise contrasts with consensus expectations for a decline to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 18 2013

  FOMC Will Reduce the Rate of Asset Purchases

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee the Fed elected to begin reducing, in January, its purchases of agency mortgage-backed and Treasury securities to $75 billion per month from $85 billion per month. The Fed [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 18 2013

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline Further

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total mortgage market index dropped 5.5% last week (-54.1% y/y) to the lowest level since late-2008. Home purchase mortgage applications dropped 6.1% last week (-11.8% y/y). [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 18 2013

  U.S. Housing Starts Surge to Highest Level Since 2008

  Housing starts during November surged 22.7% to 1.091 million (29.6% y/y) on top of a 1.8% October gain to 889,000. The latest level beat expectations for 965,000 starts in the Action Economics survey. Starts of single-family homes [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 17 2013

  U.S. Chain Store Sales Bounce Back

  Sales at chain stores were vigorous last week. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales recovered 4.8% (2.0% y/y) last week to the highest level since mid-July. The rise follows a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 17 2013

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Slip As Crude Oil Moves Up

  The price for a gallon of regular gasoline prices fell to $3.24 (-2.4% y/y) last week and remained versus the $3.78 per gallon peak reached late in February. Much of the decline reflects less driving this time of year. Haver Analytics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 17 2013

  U.S. Home Builders Index Recovers To Expansion High

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo jumped four points to 58 this month and landed at the highest level since the economic expansion began. This latest figure was stronger than [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 17 2013

  U.S. Consumer Prices Remain Unchanged

  Consumer prices held steady during November (1.2% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% October slip. Expectations had been for a 0.1% uptick. Consumer prices excluding food and energy increased 0.2% (1.7% y/y), stronger than the expected [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 16 2013

  U.S. Worker Productivity Growth is Revised Up

  Nonfarm business sector productivity matched expectations and grew 3.0% last quarter, revised up from the initial estimate of 1.9% growth. Over the past year, however, worker productivity only ticked up 0.3%, revised from unchanged. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 16 2013

  U.S. Industrial Production Improves

  Industrial production jumped 1.1% last month (3.3% y/y) following a 0.1% October uptick, initially reported as -0.1%. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics forecast survey. A 3.9% jump (2.9% y/y) in utility output [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 16 2013

  Empire State Factory Index Is Disappointing

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions for December ticked up to 0.98 from an unrevised November reading of -2.21. The gain disappointed expectations for a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 13 2013

  U.S. Producer Price Index Slips With Energy Price Decline

  Price inflation at the wholesale level is virtually nonexistent. The Producer Price Index for finished goods slipped 0.1% last month (+0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% October decline. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief