GlobalThe National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index improved to 94.1 during January from 93.9 in December. The latest figure remained down slightly from the May high of 94.4. For all of last year the sentiment index rose to 92.4, its highest level since 2007.
An improved 15% of firms expected higher real sales in six months, the highest level of the economic recovery. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve, however, remained unchanged and near the center of the last three year's range. Suggesting that labor market conditions remained tight, 22 percent of firms had positions they were not able to fill, nearly the most since before the recession. A sharply increased 12% were planning to increase employment, the most of the economic recovery. A lessened 38% of firms found few or no qualified applicants for job openings, the least since May. Twenty four percent of firms were planning capital expenditures in the next 3-6 months, still near the most of the economic recovery.
A steady 19% planned to raise average selling prices in the future but a slightly improved were raising them now. A diminished 11% planned to increase worker compensation, off its recent high of 14%.
The most important problems faced by small business were taxes (a recovery high of 24%), government requirements (22%), poor sales (a recovery low of 14%), insurance cost & availability (8%), quality of labor (8%), competition from large businesses (8%), cost of labor (4%), inflation (3%) and financial & interest rates (2%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Federation of Independent Business | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (SA, 1986=100) | 94.1 | 93.9 | 92.5 | 88.9 | 92.4 | 92.2 | 91.4 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 15 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -11 | -11 | -20 | -30 | -15 | -9 | -9 |
| Firms Planning to Increase Employment (Net %) | 12 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants For Job Openings (Net %) | 38 | 38 | 44 | 34 | 39 | 35 | 32 |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 2 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
by Tom Moeller February 11, 2014
This winter's severely cold temperatures around the U.S. continued to strengthen natural gas prices. Last week's average of $6.39 per mmbtu nearly doubled last year's level and was the highest since January 2010. Yesterday, prices rose further to $7.58 per mmbtu.
The per barrel cost of WTI crude oil improved slightly to $97.76 (1.6% y/y) last week but remained down sharply from the $108.67 high in early September. Yesterday, prices jumped to $100.06. Brent crude oil prices fell last week to $108.81 per barrel (-5.9% y/y) but yesterday improved to $109.78 per barrel.
The price for a gallon of regular gasoline prices ticked up to $3.31 (-8.4% y/y) last week but remained down versus the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for seasonal volatility. The adjusted price held steady last week at $3.51 per gallon, down from $3.94 in February last year.
The demand for all petroleum products increased 5.0% y/y last week. Gasoline demand fell 1.6% y/y. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, improved 4.6% y/y while distillate demand jumped 12.7% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 3.9% y/y.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the petroleum demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 02/10/14 | 02/03/14 | 01/27/14 | Y/Y% | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.31 | 3.29 | 3.30 | -8.4 | 3.51 | 3.62 | 3.52 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 97.76 | 97.29 | 96.31 | 1.6 | 97.95 | 94.20 | 95.14 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA) | 6.39 | 5.30 | 4.99 | 91.7 | 3.73 | 2.75 | 3.99 |
U.S. Home Affordability
Deteriorates in 2013 The National Association of Realtors reported that
during all of last year its Housing Affordability Composite Index declined
to 178.6, the lowest level since 2010. For December, the index slipped
further to 168.1 from 170.90 during November. The Affordability Index reached a peak of 213.6 in
January when average mortgage interest rates were at their low of 3.4%. The decline in affordability last year reflected a rise
in the average mortgage rate to 4.00%, then a further increase by December
to 4.41%. Also, the median sales price increased 11.5% for the full year to
$195,950. The latest price of $197,900 was, however, down from the June
peak of
$214,600. Median family income rose during December to $64,081, up 1.7% y/y.
For the full year income rose 2.5% to $63,623. Higher rates combined with
improved home prices to raise the monthly mortgage
payment to 14.1% of income for all of last year and to 14.9% by yearend. The Housing Affordability Index equals 100 when median
family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median priced existing
single-family home. A rising index indicates more buyers can afford to
enter the home-buying market. Data on Home Affordability can be found in
Haver's REALTOR database. Interest rate data can be found in the WEEKLY
and DAILY databases.
by Tom
Moeller February 11, 2014
Housing
Affordability
Dec
Nov
Oct
Dec Y/Y
2013
2012
2011
Composite Index
168.1
170.90
166.6
-17.8
178.6
197.4
188.0
Median
Sales Price (Existing Single Fam. Home)
$197,900
$195,300
$197,600
9.8%
$195,950
$175,783
$164,933
Monthly
Mortgage Rate
4.41%
4.38%
4.49%
3.43%
4.00%
3.83%
4.67%
Principal and Interest Payment
$794
$781
$800
$642
$750
$657
$682
Median
Family Income
$64,081
$64,071
$63,990
$62,982
$63,623
$62,088
$61,455
Payment
as a Percent of Income
14.9
14.6
15.0
12.2
14.1
12.7
13.3
