Global| Feb 14 2014U.S. Import Price Gain Stays Under Control With Lower Oil Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices ticked up a minimal 0.1% during January following a 0.2% December rise, revised from no change. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics survey. A 1.2% decline (-4.0% y/y) in petroleum prices last month [...]
Import prices ticked up a minimal 0.1% during January following a 0.2% December rise, revised from no change. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics survey. A 1.2% decline (-4.0% y/y) in petroleum prices last month offset a 0.4% rise (-0.9% y/y) in nonpetroleum prices, the largest increase since May 2011.
Last month's strength in nonpetroleum prices reflected a 0.8% rise (4.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages costs as well as a 0.7% gain (0.1% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), the strongest gain since September 2012. Automotive prices were off 0.2% (-1.6% y/y).
U.S. export prices increased 0.2% last month (-1.2% y/y) after a 0.5% December rise, revised from 0.4%. No change in prices had been expected. A 0.5% decline (-5.7% y/y) in agricultural export costs kept overall prices under control. Nonagricultural prices improved 0.2% (-0.5% y/y).
Capital goods export prices gained 0.4% (0.5% y/y) while auto costs increased 0.2% (0.5% y/y). Industrial supplies & materials export prices also rose 0.2% (-1.7% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods prices remained unchanged (-1.0% y/y). To the downside, foods, feeds & beverages costs fell 0.7% (-6.2% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 10.9 |
| Petroleum | -1.2 | 0.8 | -4.7 | -4.0 | -2.6 | -0.3 | 36.5 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -1.2 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 8.1 |
| Agricultural | -0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -5.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 22.3 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
