Global| Feb 12 2014U.S. Year-to-Date Budget Deficit Continues To Shrink
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Government ran a $10.4 billion budget deficit during January of FY 2014. The latest figure compares to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of a $30.0 billion deficit. In the first four months of this fiscal [...]
The Federal Government ran a $10.4 billion budget deficit during January of FY 2014. The latest figure compares to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of a $30.0 billion deficit. In the first four months of this fiscal year, the deficit total of $184.0 billion compares to $290.4 billion last year. It was the smallest budget deficit during the first four months of any fiscal year since 2008.
The smaller budget deficit so far this fiscal year reflects an 8.2% y/y rise in total revenues. The improved labor market generated a 13.8% y/y rise in social insurance receipts while corporate income taxes increased 10.2% y/y. Individual income taxes increased 1.6% y/y and excise taxes fell 2.5% y/y.
On the spending side net outlays fell 2.8% so far this fiscal year versus last year. Outlays were led lower by a 9.5% y/y falloff in interest payments and a 5.7% y/y drop in defense outlays. Income security payments were unchanged y/y. Social security payments rose 4.8% y/y and spending on health programs gained 5.5% y/y. Medicare outlays increased 11.1% y/y while veterans benefits advanced 22.0% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
When Will the Fed End Its Zero Rate Policy? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| US Government Finance | Jan | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | FY'10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-10.4 bil. | $-680.3 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. | $-1,294.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 8.8 |
| % of Total | YTD FY'14 | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.2% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 1.6 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 | -1.8 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 | 38.5 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.9 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -2.5 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.1 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 | -1.8 |
| National Defense | 18 | -5.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| Health | 10 | 5.5 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 | 10.4 |
| Medicare | 14 | 11.1 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Income Security | 16 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 | 16.7 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | 22.0 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 | 13.6 |
| Interest | 6 | -9.5 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 | 2.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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