Global| Feb 13 2014U.S. Retail Sales Likely Constrained By Harsh Weather
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail spending declined 0.4% (+2.6% y/y) during January following a 0.1% December slip, revised down from +0.2%. The latest decline fell short of a 0.1% rise expected in the Action Economics survey. A 2.1% y/y decline (+4.1 y/y) in [...]
Retail spending declined 0.4% (+2.6% y/y) during January following a 0.1% December slip, revised down from +0.2%. The latest decline fell short of a 0.1% rise expected in the Action Economics survey. A 2.1% y/y decline (+4.1 y/y) in sales of motor vehicles & parts held back January sales. Nonauto retail sales were virtually unchanged (+2.2% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.3% December increase. A 0.2% increase had been expected.
In the discretionary spending category, clothing & accessory sales declined 0.9% (+1.2% y/y) after a 0.7% December gain. Furniture & home furnishings store purchases were off 0.6% (-2.4% y/y) after two months of even larger decline while sales of nonstore retailers likewise fell 0.6% (+6.5% y/y) following a 1.3% December rise. Sales at food & drinking establishments also declined 0.6% (+2.3 y/y) after a 0.7% December drop while general merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% (+0.2% y/y), the third consecutive down month. Offsetting these shortfalls was a 1.4% jump (3.7% y/y) in sales at building materials stores. In addition, sales at electronics & appliance stores gained 0.4%, but were off 4.7% y/y, following two months of sharp decline.
Nondiscretionary purchases were generally firmer. Sales at gasoline stations increased 1.1% (1.0% y/y) following a 1.5% December rise. Food store sales gained 0.2% (4.3% y/y) after a 1.7% December jump. Sales at health & personal care stores, however, declined 0.6% (+2.9% y/y), the second decline in the last three months.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
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| Retail Spending (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.0 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 7.0 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| Retail Sales | -0.4 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -2.1 | -1.8 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 7.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.1 | 1.5 | -1.7 | 1.0 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 18.4 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.6 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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