Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Jan 22 2003

  Chain Store Sales Rose Slightly Again

  Chain store sales rose the same slight 0.3% as during the week prior according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales so far in January were up 2.1% from the December average. That likely represents a material gain in real terms due to the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 21 2003

  Housing Starts Highest Since the Mid-80s

  Housing starts surged much more than expected last month on the strength of gains in both single and multi family activity. November starts were revised up. For the full year, starts in 2002 were at the highest level since 1985. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 17 2003

  U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened to a New Record

  The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened much more than expected in November. October's deficit was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for a November deficit of $36.1B. The end of the West Coast dock workers strike [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 16 2003

  CPI Weak in 2002

  The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose less than expected last month. Excluding food and energy, prices rose as expected. The core CPI less tobacco rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y). For the full year, the average gain in prices rivaled the 1.5% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 15 2003

  Empire State Factory Survey Up Again in January

  The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions rose more than expected this month. An unchanged reading versus December had been expected by some forecasters. Diffusion indexes for [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 14 2003

  Retail Sales Lifted by Higher Vehicle Sales

  Retail sales rose strongly last month but less than Consensus expectations for a 1.4% gain. Sales in November were revised down due to a lowered gain for nonauto sales. The 3.4% gain in retail sales for all of 2002 was the weakest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 13 2003

  OECD Leaders On the Mend?

  The OECD Index of Leading Indicators rose in November for the first month since May as a result of improvement in Continental Europe and in the US. Leaders in the UK and Japan continued a recent decline. Real economic growth in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 10 2003

  Nonfarm Payrolls Again Fell Unexpectedly

  Nonfarm payrolls were quite weak last month, falling 101,000 instead of rising 20,000 as expected by Consensus estimates. The decline in November payrolls was about doubled (mostly due to lowered private services) but figures for [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 09 2003

  Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fell Slightly

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than expected during New Year's week. Claims fell 19,000 from the prior week's level which was revised slightly higher. The incidence of two holidays in back to back weeks [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 08 2003

  Mortgage Applications Surged

  The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, jumped 24.3% in the opening week of 2003. Mortgage applications to refinance popped 29.1%, up 55% from four weeks earlier. Through 3Q02, Freddie Mac [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 07 2003

  Factory Inventories Resumed Decumulation

  Manufacturing inventories fell in November following a slight decline the month prior that initially was reported as no change. The declines follow a brief two months of accumulation. The figures are broadly consistent with the ISM [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 06 2003

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Surge

  Unit sales of light vehicles surged in December to the highest level since August as zero percent financing incentives again took hold. Sales fell for the second consecutive calendar year since the high of 2000. December sales were [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief