The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in July for the fourth consecutive month, but it was the magnitude of the increase that impressed. The 1.1% July gain followed like increases in the previous three months. The three [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Sep 10 2003OECD Leaders Build Upward Momentum
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 09 2003
Consumer Credit Usage Up Moderately
The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit outstanding (which excludes mortgages) rose $6.0B (4.1% AR) in July. Consensus expectations had been for a $5.0B gain. June's increase was revised up slightly due to raised usage of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 08 2003
US Dollar Down Even Before the August Employment Report
The foreign exchange value of the US dollar against major currencies began the most recent decline before the release of the weak August jobs report. On August 22nd the dollar was up more than 5% from the June low as data suggested [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 05 2003
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Fell Unexpectedly
Nonfarm payrolls fell 93,000 in August and the previously reported declines in June & July were deepened. Consensus estimates had been for a modest 15,000 worker rise in August payrolls. It was the seventh monthly decline in payrolls [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 04 2003
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Surged
Light vehicle sales rose more than expected in August to a 19.0M unit annual rate. The 9.6% gain versus July contrasted with Consensus expectations for a m/m decline to 17.0M. Sales of light trucks were the standout last month rising [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 03 2003
Home Price Inflation Slowed
Prices for existing homes rose last quarter by the smallest degree since 1998 according to the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Prices rose 0.8% q/q and 5.6% y/y. Reports for recent quarters of that [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 02 2003
ISM Factory Index Powered by Output & Orders
The Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) released by the Institute of Supply Managements rose in August by nearly three points to 54.7, the highest level since December. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate rise [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Aug 29 2003
U.S. After Tax Income Spiked, Personal Spending Surged
Tax cuts and rebate checks lowered personal tax payments by 9.3% (-10.3% y/y) last month. That decline raised disposable personal income by 1.5% m/m and by 5.2% y/y. The surge in disposable income fueled an expected 0.8% gain in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Aug 28 2003
2Q U.S. GDP Growth Revised Up, Profits Surged
The US economy grew faster than estimated in the advance report issued last month. The upward revision to a 3.1% rate of growth was slightly greater than Consensus expectations for a revision to 2.9%. 2Q was the fastest rate of real [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Aug 27 2003
Mortgage Applications Fell Further
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell last week to the lowest level since June of last year. The index of all mortgage applications fell 13.3% last week pulling the average for this month [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Aug 26 2003
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rose Further
Durable goods orders added another 1.0% in July to the upwardly revised 2.6% gain in June. The gain matched Consensus expectations for a 1.0% rise. A 5.5% jump for motor vehicles & parts powered the July orders gain. However, for the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Aug 25 2003
Existing Home Sales Surged
Sales of existing single family homes surged to a record high of 6.12M last month and beat Consensus expectations for sales of 5.90M. July sales jumped 5.0%, the largest m/m increase since January 2002, and were up 13.8% y/y. Sales in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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