Global| Aug 27 2003Mortgage Applications Fell Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell last week to the lowest level since June of last year. The index of all mortgage applications fell 13.3% last week pulling the average for this month [...]
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell last week to the lowest level since June of last year. The index of all mortgage applications fell 13.3% last week pulling the average for this month so far down 51.6% from the monthly peak in late May.
Applications to refinance continued to plummet. They fell 21.3% last week and are down 78.3% from the weekly peak in late May.
Purchase applications also have fallen, but not as drastically. Last week mortgage applications for home purchase fell 3.6%. For the month so far purchase applications are down 5.8% from the July average which was the peak.
During the last ten years there has been a 55% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage were about steady last week at 6.48%. That was versus a low for 30-Year financing of 5.31% in the second week of June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage was 5.86%.
The average size of mortgage applications has been falling. Purchase application size fell to $193,600 last week versus the weekly peak of $201,200 in mid-May. The average size of a mortgage refinancing fell to $166,700, down 14.3% from the peak of $194,600.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site at www.mbaa.org.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 8/22/03 | 8/15/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 638.6 | 736.7 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 375.5 | 389.5 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 2,169.0 | 2,756.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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