Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

  • Finished producer prices jumped 0.5% higher last month following a 0.1% February uptick. The surge matched consensus expectations. The core PPI also rose a moderate 0.2% following the 0.1% February rise. A 0.1% increase in the core [...]

  • The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association dropped another 5.6% (-29.5% y/y) last week, for the fourth consecutive steep weekly decline. Applications to refinance tumbled 10.9% (-50% y/y) on the [...]

  • Global| Apr 20 2004

    Chain Store Sales Jump

    Chain store sales jumped 1.0% last week following a 0.8% gain the week earlier, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. These two strong increases pulled the level of sales in April about even [...]

  • The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators reported by the Conference Board rose an expected 0.3% in March. The gain followed no change in February. The gain reflected increases in 60% of the component series but shorter [...]

  • Global| Apr 16 2004

    U.S. Consumer Sentiment Down

    The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell in mid-April to 93.2 from 95.8 in March. Consensus expectations had been for a firmer reading of 96.0. During the last ten years there has been an 76% correlation between the [...]

  • The Philadelphia Fed’s April index of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector rose 8.3 points to 32.5 and recovered all of last month's decline. Consensus expectations had been for little change at 25.0. During the [...]

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) jumped 0.5% in March versus Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. Core consumer prices also rose a strong 0.4%, twice the Consensus expectation. A 0.6% (2.6% y/y) surge in shelter costs, which [...]

  • Global| Apr 13 2004

    U.S. Retail Sales Surge

    Retail sales surged 1.8% last month on the heels of a 1.0% jump in February. This surprising strength far exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.7% March gain. Sales' gains in both February and January were revised up. Retail sales [...]

  • Global| Apr 12 2004

    OECD Leaders' Gain Slowed

    Gains in the Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries continue to signal positive economic growth, but the 0.1% uptick in February and the upwardly revised 0.4% January increase are slower than the 0.7-0.9% gains [...]

  • Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 14,000 last week to 328,000, the lowest level since January 2001. The prior week's level was unrevised and Consensus expectations had been for 340,000 claims. The 4-week moving average of [...]

  • Imported commodities prices jumped 0.9% in March, nearly double the Consensus expectation for a 0.5% rise. The surge was led by a 6.1% m/m jump in petroleum prices. In early April, the price of Brent Crude Oil is down 7.1% versus the [...]

  • Retail gasoline prices rose last week to a record high level of $1.78 per gallon, the average US price for all formulations. That was versus an average price of $1.74 in March and an average $1.69 in March '03. Crude oil prices [...]