Global| Apr 06 2004Gasoline Prices Up, Crude Oil Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail gasoline prices rose last week to a record high level of $1.78 per gallon, the average US price for all formulations. That was versus an average price of $1.74 in March and an average $1.69 in March '03. Crude oil prices [...]
Retail gasoline prices rose last week to a record high level of $1.78 per gallon, the average US price for all formulations. That was versus an average price of $1.74 in March and an average $1.69 in March '03.
Crude oil prices dropped to $34.38 for West Texas Intermediate crude by the end of last week. Prices had surged into March to a high of $38.18.
Wholesale natural gas prices backed up during the last few weeks to $5.73/mmbtu (+13.0% y/y) yesterday from the lows near $5.38 averaged during February and March.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
"Business Cycles: The Role of Energy Prices" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 04/05/04 | 12/29/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $1.78 | $1.48 | 9.2% | $1.56 | $1.34 | $1.42 |
by Tom Moeller April 6, 2004
Chain store sales ticked 0.3% higher last week following a 1.9% flop during the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
For all of March sales fell 0.4% versus the February average.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the ICSC-UBS measure of chain store sales and consumer sentiment.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/03/04 | 03/27/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 432.5 | 431.0 | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller April 6, 2004
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced job cuts fell 11.9% m/m following a 34.3% plunge in February. Layoffs in March were at the lowest level since last June.
The three month moving average of job cut announcements fell to 87,613 (-26.1% y/y). During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month average level of announced job cuts and the y/y percent change payroll employment.
The decline in layoffs was very mixed across industries. Large m/m declines in the automotive, entertainment, industrial goods, health care, food and electronics industries were partially offset by gains in the financial, pharmaceutical, chemical, energy, and government industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 68,034 | 77,250 | -20.3% | 1,236,426 | 1,431,052 | 1,956,876 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
