Global| Apr 12 2004OECD Leaders' Gain Slowed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Gains in the Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries continue to signal positive economic growth, but the 0.1% uptick in February and the upwardly revised 0.4% January increase are slower than the 0.7-0.9% gains [...]
Gains in the Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries continue to signal positive economic growth, but the 0.1% uptick in February and the upwardly revised 0.4% January increase are slower than the 0.7-0.9% gains of the prior eight months.
Six-month growth in the leading index dipped to 7.1% versus the high of 8.1% in December.
The leading index for the European Union rose 0.2% in February and 0.3% in January. These gains followed increases which ranged from 0.4-0.9% from May through December.
Leaders in Germany were unchanged in February, the six-month growth rate down to 7.74%. The leaders in Italy managed the first gain in four months but the six month growth rate dropped to 1.5%, the lowest since last June. In France the leading index rose 0.4% and the six-month growth rate remained firm at 8.3%, the highest since 1999.
Leaders in Japan were unchanged in February and the six-month growth rate dropped slightly to 2.5%. Leaders in the UK rose 0.3%, only modestly below recent monthly gains so the six month growth rate remained quite firm at 4.7%.
In Canada the leading index added 0.4% to the 0.5% January increase, revised down sharply. The six-month growth rose to 7.0%. Leading indicators in the United States ticked up just 0.1% but the six-month growth rate at 10.3% remained firm.
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| OECD Main Economic Indicators | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 120.9 | 120.6 | 6.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | -3.1% |
| European Union | 121.0 | 120.7 | 5.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | -1.9% |
| Japan | 102.0 | 102.0 | 2.2% | 1.1% | -0.5% | -4.5% |
| United States | 133.3 | 133.1 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | -3.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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