The chart on the left shows that many patterns for current conditions and expectations precede the economys slip into recession. As we evaluate this years pattern nothing is very telling. Current conditions are holding up, basically [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| May 18 2007U.S. Consumer Sentiment Bounced Back but Current Conditions Slip
- Global| May 17 2007
U.S. LEI Weakness in April… One Trick Pony
The LEI is increasing its year/year pace of decline and is now falling by 0.7% year/year. However, a brief look at history shows that the current combination of a weak LEI and weak coincident index is not producing a weakening at a [...]
- Global| May 17 2007
Philly Index Points Way Higher
Pictured on the left is the Philadelphia barometer for its OUTLOOK index that looks 6-months ahead. The index has made a considerable rebound and is now closer to giving off a signal of normal growth for the future based on the [...]
- Global| May 17 2007
Philly Index Points Way Higher
Pictured on the left is the Philadelphia barometer for its OUTLOOK index that looks 6-months ahead. The index has made a considerable rebound and is now closer to giving off a signal of normal growth for the future based on the [...]
- Global| May 16 2007
U.S. Industrial Production Surges Across the Board - Turning Point?
Industrial production is up strongly at the start of Q2 2007 and its lift is across the aboard. Vehicle output is strong. But output is strong apart from vehicles as well. Consumer product output is also strong and business equipment [...]
- Global| May 16 2007
U.S. Housing Starts Rise, Permits Fall
Starts rise by 2.5% after downward revision of 1.8% still a net rise on month. Permits fall by 8.9% - drops in all regions. Starts are off by 16.1% year/year compared to permits that are off by 28.1%. Builders hack permits to get them [...]
- Global| May 16 2007
U.S. Housing Starts Rise, Permits Fall
Starts rise by 2.5% after downward revision of 1.8% still a net rise on month. Permits fall by 8.9% - drops in all regions. Starts are off by 16.1% year/year compared to permits that are off by 28.1%. Builders hack permits to get them [...]
- Global| May 15 2007
CPI Core Remains on the Razor’s Edge
CPI Headline +0.4% +2.6% y/y. CPI-Core: +0.2% +2.3% y/y. The CPI headline is a touch better than expected. The core at 0.2% is as excepted bringing the Core year/year pace to 2.3% year/year at the boundary of Fed discomfort. It is not [...]
- Global| May 14 2007
CPI Core Remains on the Razor’s Edge
CPI Headline +0.4% +2.6% y/y. CPI-Core: +0.2% +2.3% y/y. The CPI headline is a touch better than expected. The core at 0.2% is as excepted bringing the Core year/year pace to 2.3% year/year at the boundary of Fed discomfort. It is not [...]
- Global| May 14 2007
Germany’s retail sales flounder
German retail trends are hard to pin down. The German VAT tax that took effect in January of 2007 helped to bulge retail sales in December and to wither them in the following months. The three-month growth rate is particularly weak in [...]
- Global| May 14 2007
Euro area Industrial Production Shows Some Signs of Topping
Industrial production in MFG in the Euro area in March rose by 0.3%. But the chart shows that a deceleration is underway. Yr/Yr growth is steady at just under 5.3%. But over the last three months output has lost momentum. The table [...]
- Global| May 14 2007
Germany’s Retail Sales Flounder
German retail trends are hard to pin down. The German VAT tax that took effect in January of 2007 helped to bulge retail sales in December and to wither them in the following months. The three-month growth rate is particularly weak in [...]
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