Global| Aug 10 2007Japan IP Rebounds in June but still has Uncertain Momentum
Summary
Industrial production in Japan has clearly been slowing down. But the three-month pace is showing more lift. Still, this is the volatile measure and its greater lift does not mean that will remain force. For the time being Japan [...]
Industrial production in Japan has clearly been slowing down. But the three-month pace is showing more lift. Still, this is the volatile measure and its greater lift does not mean that will remain force. For the time being Japan appears to be doing better, but its momentum remains uncertain. By sector, manufacturing is strong over three months but still lower over 6 months and one year and its gain is based on the first monthly rise in four months. Investment and mining categories have a bit more of an uptrend in place; mining is up over 3-month, 6-month and one-year period. This sector does not look solid enough to justify a rate hike anytime soon.
| m/m % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | |
| Mining & Manufacturing | 1.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 3.4% | -2.0% | 2.3% | 5.3% |
| Total Industry | 1.2% | -0.6% | 0.3% | 3.4% | -2.7% | 2.3% | 4.9% |
| Manufacturing | 1.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 3.4% | -1.8% | 2.3% | 5.3% |
| Food & Tobacco | -1.5% | 0.7% | -0.6% | -5.4% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.3% |
| Textiles | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.3% | -1.6% | -3.7% | -2.9% |
| Transportation | 0.7% | 4.2% | -2.4% | 9.5% | -5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% |
| Product | |||||||
| Consumer Goods | 3.5% | -3.4% | 0.6% | 2.4% | -2.5% | 0.8% | 4.2% |
| Intermediate Goods | 1.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% |
| Investment Goods | 0.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 11.4% | 0.0% | -1.2% | 5.7% |
| Mining | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 21.9% | 18.5% | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Electricity & Gas | 0.3% | -2.6% | 2.0% | -1.4% | -1.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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