Global| Aug 09 2007After a SURGE, UK Export and Import Growth Plummeted and Has Begun to Recover
Summary
The UK trade balance has remained fairly stable through all this volatility. The shorter growth horizons show that export growth has started to pick up at a fast pace than import growth. Yr/Yr exports are off a bit more than imports, [...]
The UK trade balance has remained fairly stable through all this volatility.
The shorter growth horizons show that export growth has started to pick up at a fast pace than import growth. Yr/Yr exports are off a bit more than imports, but over the past 3-6 months they are up at a much faster pace and accelerating. Export growth is stronger across road vehicles, basic materials and firmer for capital goods. For food, beverages and tobacco, flows are still weak and dropping.
For imports, basic materials are strong and so are road vehicles, but vehicle imports have slowed somewhat. Food, beverages and tobacco imports are steady. Capital goods imports have slowed their decline. Overall imports are lower over three months at a 1% pace and up over six months by just 1.8%.
The slowing in imports has allowed the strength in exports to bolster the trade position in general. In June the deficit improved slightly to -£6.27bln compared to -£6.44bln in May.
| m/m% | % Saar | ||||
| Jun-07 | May-07 | 3M | 6M | 12M | |
| Balance* | -££ 6.27 | -££ 6.44 | -££ 6.61 | -££ 6.78 | -££ 6.72 |
| Exports | |||||
| All Exports | 4.9% | 4.6% | 19.3% | 10.6% | -13.3% |
| Capital goods | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | -21.0% | -52.0% |
| Road Vehicles | 5.3% | 0.2% | 32.8% | 17.1% | 6.2% |
| Basic Materials | -1.4% | 5.7% | 67.9% | 41.0% | 15.4% |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | -9.1% | 9.5% | -21.0% | -4.4% | -0.8% |
| IMPORTS | |||||
| All Imports | 2.9% | 0.5% | -1.0% | 1.8% | -11.9% |
| Capital goods | 4.0% | -1.7% | -9.7% | -26.3% | -52.7% |
| Road Vehicles | 3.7% | 6.9% | 18.8% | 36.6% | 12.3% |
| Basic Materials | 1.2% | 2.7% | 46.3% | 15.3% | 22.7% |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | -1.5% | -0.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% |
| *Stg Blns; mo or period average | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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