The inventory picture has cleared a bit in recent months. We can now see that we in the grip on an inventory liquidation cycle. But how firmly are we in this grip? How much will it squeeze? And for how long? This month inventories [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| May 11 2007Inventories slow further… they decline
- Global| May 11 2007
U.S. Retail Sales: Weak in April but Stronger in March
Result: Surprising - good growth in Q2. Retail sales fell by 0.2% in April the first month of the second quarter yet sales in Q2 are up nicely so far. How can that be? The reason is that for GDP we look at what happens in quarter on [...]
- Global| May 11 2007
U.S. Retail Sales: Weak in April but Stronger in March
Result: Surprising - good growth in Q2. Retail sales fell by 0.2% in April the first month of the second quarter yet sales in Q2 are up nicely so far. How can that be? The reason is that for GDP we look at what happens in quarter on [...]
- Global| May 10 2007
OECD Leading Indicators
While there has been a lot talk above a de-linking of Europe from the US, a rather careful look at the LEIs plotted on the left shows that at least in terms of these signals the US usually calls the tune and the rest of the OECD [...]
- Global| May 10 2007
U.S. Import Prices Up 1.3% M/M
Import prices jump by 1.3% as petroleum prices head higher by 6.5% in the month. Ex-petroleum import price rise by a cool 0.2%. Import prices are rising much more rapidly since March of 2006. Consumer goods import prices are up by [...]
- Global| May 10 2007
U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Oil and Without Oil
Exports outpace imports in nominal terms and shrink the non-oil trade balance. But BOTH export and import growth rates are moderating. The non-oil export and import flows take the distorting effect of oil out of the equation. These [...]
- Global| May 10 2007
U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Oil and Without Oil
Exports outpace imports in nominal terms and shrink the non-oil trade balance. But BOTH export and import growth rates are moderating. The non-oil export and import flows take the distorting effect of oil out of the equation. These [...]
- Global| May 09 2007
German Trade Flows Dive, but Imports Dive Faster
Exports show a slowing trend while imports now show a DECLINING trend. We know that export weakness cant be for real since export orders have been filled with such life...or have they? The chart above plots the course of exports Vs [...]
- Global| May 09 2007
German Trade Flows Dive, but Imports Dive Faster
Exports show a slowing trend while imports now show a DECLINING trend. We know that export weakness cant be for real since export orders have been filled with such life...or have they? The chart above plots the course of exports Vs [...]
- Global| May 08 2007
JOLTS Data Show Some Softening in Labor Market Conditions
JOLTS data for the Quit rate, a very good directions signal for the job market, show that quit rates have been drifting lower. A lower quit rate is a sign of less confidence in a workers ability (or perceived ability) to get a job. [...]
- Global| May 08 2007
U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales: No Bad News
Inventories are tricky to analyze. We plot durables excluding autos and nondurables excluding oil to get at the trends outside these two sectors. When we do we find inventory and sales growth are coming into better balance. Durables [...]
- Global| May 08 2007
NFIB: It’s Weak, No FIB
The chart of the main NFIB survey is a telling graphic on the state of the economy. While the index reached its local low in August of 2006 and there is a sort of bounce in train since then (dead-cat bounce?), the index remains [...]
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