U.S. Retail Sales Strength Exceeds Expectations in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Omicron disruptions ease.
- Vehicle sales strengthen.
- Online sales surge.
Consumers' appetite for spending, lost at yearend, revived in January. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments strengthened 3.8% (13.0% y/y) last month following a 2.5% December shortfall, revised from -1.9%. A 2.0% increase in January sales had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 3.3% in January (13.4% y/y) following a 2.8% December decline, revised from -2.3%. Expectations had been for a 1.0% increase.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, strengthened 4.8% last month (8.9% y/y) following a 4.0% December decline, revised from -3.1%.
Motor vehicle sales surged 5.7% (11.3% y/y) in January after weakening 1.6% during December. Unit motor vehicle sales increased 19.3% last month (-10.0% y/y) after falling 3.1% in December.
The increase in retail purchases via the internet led last month's resurgence in overall sales with a 14.5% (8.4% y/y) strengthening. That more than made up December's 11.4% decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales posted a strong a 7.2% (2.7% y/y) increase in January after a 7.4% December decline. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 1.9% (-2.9% y/y) after falling for two consecutive months. General merchandise store sales strengthened 3.6% last month (7.6% y/y), also following two consecutive months of decline. Within that category, department store sales strengthened 9.2% (11.5% y/y) after falling 7.0% in December. Apparel & accessory store sales improved 0.7% last month (21.9% y/y) after December's 3.4% shortfall. To the downside, sporting goods, hobby and book store sales weakened 3.0% (+1.3% y/y) last month after a 6.0% December falloff.
Gasoline service station sales fell 1.3% (+33.4% y/y) in January following a 0.4% December rise. The January sales decline reflected a 2.9% increase in gasoline prices (seasonally adjusted by Haver) which followed a 1.8% December decline. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 4.1% last month (12.2% y/y) after three months of strong increase.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales rose 1.1% (8.0% y/y) during January after easing 0.2% in December. Health & personal care store sales fell 0.7% (+7.6% y/y) after improving 0.3% in December.
Sales at restaurants & drinking establishments fell 0.9% in January (+27.0% y/y), off modestly for the third month in the last four.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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