U.S. JOLTS: Job Market Tightness Loosens in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Job openings fall from record level.
- Both hiring level & hiring rate slip.
- Separations rise but quits fall.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of January, the total number of job openings fell 1.6% (+55.7% y/y) to 11.263 million. The job openings rate, calculated as job openings as a percent of the sum of total employment and openings, eased to 7.0% from 7.1%. New hires rose 0.1% (+12.9% y/y) to 6.457 million. The hiring rate held steady m/m at 4.3%. The number of job quits fell 3.4% (+28.4% y/y) to 4.252 million from the near record 4.403 million recorded in December. The quits rate edged down to 2.8% in January from a record 3.0% in each of the prior two months. Layoffs and discharges rose 12.0% (-10.6% y/y) in January to 1.414 million. The JOLTS figures date back to December 2000.
Private-sector job openings fell 1.1% in January (+57.8% y/y) to 10.234 million as the private-sector job openings rate eased to 7.4% from 7.5% in December. Openings in leisure & hospitality rose 115.1% y/y, manufacturing rose 63.8% y/y and professional & business services increased 42.2% y/y. Trade, transportation & utilities openings gained 32.8% y/y while construction sector job openings rose 27.1% y/y. Job openings in the nondurable goods sector gained 53.7% y/y while government sector job openings increased 37.9% y/y.
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. The level of private sector separations rose 16.4% y/y in January while the private sector separations rate edged up to 4.5%. The private sector quits rate eased to 3.2% and remained below the record 3.4% in November. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. In the private sector, January's layoff & discharge rate of 1.0% stayed close to its level of the last nine months.
The level of private-sector layoffs and discharges rose to 1.338 million (-10.6% y/y) in January from the record low of 1.183 million in December. Layoffs fell 18.0% in construction. Layoffs in trade, transportation and utilities fell 18.2% y/y while professional and business services layoffs declined 17.6% y/y. Leisure and hospitality layoffs fell 12.7% y/y. Working the other way, manufacturing layoffs & discharges rose 23.7% y/y and in education and health services, they rose 9.6% y/y.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are available in Haver's USECON database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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