U.S. Housing Starts Are Unexpectedly Strong in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Multi-family starts increase while single-family building eases.
- Regional changes are mixed.
- Building permits strengthen.
Housing starts rose 1.4% (2.5% y/y) during December to 1.702 million units (SAAR) from 1.678 million in November, revised from 1.679 million. They reached the highest level since March of 2021. During all of last year, 1.598 million units were started, up 14.4% from 1.397 million in 2020 and the most since 2006. A December level of 1.660 million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The rise in starts overall in December reflected a 10.6% gain (53.2% y/y) in multi-family starts to 530,000, the highest level since February 2020. During all of 2021, multi-family starts rose 20.0% to 472,000. Starts of single-family units declined 2.3% in December (-10.9% y/y) to 1.172 million, but for the whole year, single-family starts rose 12.3% to 1.127 million.
Building permits increased 9.1% (6.5% y/y) to 1.873 million from 1.717 million in November. It was the highest level of permits since January 2021. During all of 2021, permits rose 15.8% to 1.713 million. Permits to build single-family homes gained 2.0% in December (-8.5% y/y) to 1.128 million. Permits to build multi-family homes rose 21.9% (41.9% y/y) in December to 745,000.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast rose 20.2% (0.7% y/y) in December to 137,000. Starts in the Midwest increased 36.5% (17.1% y/y) to 288,000. Working lower were housing starts in the South by 1.9% (+9.3% y/y) to 915,000. Starts in the West fell 13.8% (-18.1% y/y) to 362,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
