U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Orders increase broadly.
- Shipments strengthen for third straight month.
- Unfilled orders & inventories continue to rise.
Manufacturers' new orders rose 2.2% (14.2% y/y) during March following a 0.1% February increase, revised from a 0.5% decline reported initially. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders excluding transportation increased 2.5% (14.3% y/y) after improving 1.0% in February.
Durable goods orders rose 1.1% in March (10.5% y/y), revised from 0.8% in the advance report. The gain followed a 1.7% February decline. Electrical equipment & appliance orders surged 4.4% (13.6% y/y) after strengthening 1.3% in February. Machinery orders increased 1.3% (10.5% y/y) after falling 2.7% in February. Orders for computers and electronic equipment rebounded 2.6% (6.5% y/y) after falling 1.1% in February while primary metals orders rose 2.2% (17.2% y/y) after a 0.1% rise.
New orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, rose 3.2% (18.0% y/y) in March following a 2.1% February increase. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 12.8% (66.5% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel shipments gained 1.5% (4.8% y/y), about as they did in February. Shipments of basic chemicals rose 0.8% (10.6% y/y) after easing 0.1% in February.
Total shipments increased 2.3% (14.5% y/y) in March after a 1.1% rise. Shipments excluding transportation rose 2.3% (15.4% y/y) after improving roughly 1.5% in each of the prior two months. Transportation equipment gained 2.6% (9.1% y/y) after they eased 0.2% in February. Machinery shipments increased 1.3% last month (13.8% y/y) after falling 1.6%. Shipments of computers & electronic products eased 0.3% (+4.8% y/y) after sharp increases in each of the prior three months.
Unfilled orders increased 0.4% in March (8.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders gained 0.4% (12.1% y/y) following a 0.2% rise in February. Transportation backlogs increased 0.4% (6.5% y/y) after rising 0.6%. Unfilled orders of machinery rose 0.4% (15.2% y/y), the same as in February.
Inventories of manufactured goods jumped 1.3% in March (10.6% y/y) after rising 0.9% in February. Transportation equipment inventories strengthened 1.0% (5.0% y/y) while excluding transportation, inventories gained 1.4% (12.0% y/y) after a 1.1% February rise.
The factory sector data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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