U.S. Factory Orders Decline as Shipments and Inventories Rise in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Fall in manufactured goods orders is first since April 2021.
- Shipments continue year long gain.
- Unfilled orders and inventories rise further.
Manufacturers' new orders fell 0.5% (+12.6% y/y) during February following a 1.5% January gain, revised from 1.4%. A 0.6% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Transportation equipment orders declined 5.3% (+8.7% y/y), weighed down by a 30.4% fall in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% (13.4% y/y) after improving 1.2% in January.
Durable goods orders fell 2.1% (10.3% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. The decline compared to a 2.2% fall issued in the advance report. Machinery orders declined 2.9% (+12.3% y/y) and reversed January's 3.0% increase. Orders for computers and electronic equipment fell 1.1% (+4.3% y/y) after rising 0.4% in January while primary metals orders weakened 0.9% (+19.7% y/y) after a 0.3% slip. Electrical equipment orders rose 0.6% (7.8% y/y) after a 0.3% dip.
New orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, rose 1.2% (15.1% y/y) in February, following a 1.5% January rise. Shipments from refineries rose 4.6% (47.3% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel shipments gained 0.8% (3.8% y/y) following a 1.2% decline. Basic chemical shipments eased 0.4% (+10.3% y/y) and reversed January's increase.
Total shipments rose 0.6% (13.7% y/y) in February after a 1.4% rise. Shipments excluding transportation rose 0.8% (14.4% y/y) after improving 1.5%. Transportation equipment eased 0.5% (+9.8% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Machinery shipments fell 1.7% (14.9% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Shipments of computers & electronic products rose 1.2% (6.0% y/y) after sharp increases in the prior two months.
Unfilled orders increased 0.4% (8.4% y/y) in February after a 0.9% rise in January. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders edged 0.1% higher (13.4% y/y) following a 0.5% rise in January. Transportation backlogs increased 0.6% (6.0% y/y) after surging 1.1%. Primary metals backlogs increased 0.4% (15.8% y/y) after a 1.1% rise and unfilled orders of machinery rose 0.3% (16.3% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
Inventories of manufactured goods rose 0.6% in February (9.7% y/y) after rising 0.8% in January. Transportation equipment inventories edged 0.1% higher (5.5% y/y) while excluding transportation inventories gained 0.8% (10.8% y/y) after a 1.0% rise in January.
The factory sector data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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