U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall Unexpectedly in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Fewer aircraft orders lead downturn.
- Core capital goods orders ease following January surge.
- Shipments hold steady but backlogs & inventories increase.
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods declined 2.2% (+10.3% y/y) in February after rising an unrevised 1.6% in January. The fall followed three months of strong gain and was the first since a 0.4% easing last September. A 0.6% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding transportation, orders declined 0.6% (+11.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise, revised from 0.7%.
A 5.6% decline (+8.4% y/y) in transportation equipment orders led the overall February decline. It followed three months of strong increase. Defense aircraft orders surged 60.1% (-13.4% y/y), but orders for nondefense aircraft fell 30.4% in February following three consecutive months of double-digit increase. Motor vehicle & parts orders slipped 0.5% (+6.0% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, machinery orders declined 2.6% (+12.7% y/y) and orders for computers & electronic products fell 1.1% (+4.2% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance orders edged 0.2% higher (8.7% y/y).
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 6.7% last month (+14.8% y/y), but core capital goods orders eased just 0.3% (+11.0% y/y) in February following a 1.3% January rise.
Durable goods shipments were little changed (+12.3 y/y) in February following a two straight months 1.3% gain. Transportation shipments eased 0.6% (+9.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Excluding transportation, shipments improved 0.2% in February (13.5% y/y) after a 1.6% jump. Machinery shipments declined 1.4% (+15.3% y/y) but shipments of computers and electronic products rose 1.1% (5.9% y/y). Shipments of electrical equipment and appliances increased 1.5% (13.9% y/y) while primary metals shipments gained 0.4% (23.1% y/y).
The advance reading on shipments of nondurable goods indicated a 1.1% increase (14.9% y/y) following a 1.4% January increase, revised from 1.3%. Shipments from all manufacturing industries increased 0.5% (13.6% y/y) in February after a 1.3% January rise. Capital goods shipments excluding defense and aircraft increased 0.5% (12.5% y/y) in February after an upwardly revised 2.1% gain.
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.4% last month (8.4% y/y) following an unrevised 0.9% gain. Unfilled orders are not calculated for nondurable goods. Durable goods inventories increased 0.4% (10.0% y/y) following a 0.5% January gain. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.9% (8.0% y/y) after increasing 1.2% in January.
The durable goods and nondurable goods data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
Global
