U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revolving credit growth explodes.
- Nonrevolving credit usage picks up.
Consumer credit outstanding strengthened a record $40.0 billion (5.8% y/y) during November following a $16.0 billion October gain, revised from $16.9 billion. An $18.8 billion November rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding-to-disposable personal income rose to 24.3% in November, the highest level since March 2020.
Revolving consumer credit balances increased $19.8 billion (6.1% y/y) in November after falling 11.1% in 2020. Credit provided by depository institutions (90% of the total and mostly credit card debt) rose 7.0% y/y versus an 11.0% decline in 2020. Credit union borrowing (6% of the total) rose 4.1% y/y after falling 6.4% in 2020. The value of finance company loans (2% of loans) declined 12.9% y/y following a 21.9% shortfall in 2020.
Nonrevolving credit usage grew $20.1 billion (5.6% y/y) in November following a 3.6% rise in 2020. Federal government borrowing, which issues over 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew a steady 4.1% y/y. Depository institution loans (26% of credit) grew an accelerated 8.6% y/y, up from 2.7% in 2020. Finance company borrowing (17.0% of loans) rose 5.9% y/y, quicker than the 3.6% growth in 2020. Credit union loans (14.0% of the total) increased 5.3% y/y, double the 2020 increase.
The value of student loans rose 2.7% y/y as of Q3:21 versus 3.4% growth in 2020. The value of motor vehicle loans increased 6.7% y/y in Q3:21 after rising 3.4% in 2020.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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