U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Edge Higher in April
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Inventory accumulation has been broad-based this year.
- Sales rise slightly.
- I/S ratio trends slower.
Wholesale inventories increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y) during April after rising 0.3% in March, revised from 0.4%. An unchanged level of inventories had been expected in the Informa Global Markets survey. Durable goods inventories gained 0.1% during April (1.3% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in March. Professional & business equipment inventories strengthened 1.8% (8.7% y/y) after a 0.7% increase. Hardware & plumbing equipment inventories rose 1.6% (6.2% y/y) following a 1.8% strengthening. Motor vehicle & parts inventories rose 0.8% (0.1% y/y) following a 1.1% jump. Metals inventories held steady (-3.0% y/y) after rising 0.1% in March. On the weak side, lumber inventories declined 1.3% (+2.7% y/y) after falling by a similar amount in March. Machinery & equipment inventories declined 0.9% (-0.5% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Furniture inventories fell 0.6% (6.4% y/y) following a 2.5% jump, while machinery inventories declined 0.9% (-0.5% y/y) following a 0.5% gain in March. Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.3% during April (4.2% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Drug inventories surged 1.3% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.1% slip while apparel inventories gained 1.5% (-1.1% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Grocery inventories rose 1.4% (11.5% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Working lower, paper inventories declined 0.7% (+5.7% y/y), reversing the March rise, while chemical inventories dropped 1.3% (+0.7% y/y) after strengthening 1.9% in March. Petroleum & petroleum product inventories fell 7.1% (-15.4% y/y) following a 1.2% decline.
Wholesale sales edged 0.1% higher (6.0% y/y) in April after increasing 0.8% in March. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of durable goods rose 0.2% (8.4% y/y) following a 1.2% strengthening in March. Furniture sales strengthened 2.3% (3.2% y/y) after a 0.5% decline. Professional equipment sales jumped 1.0% (9.5% y/y) as they did in March. Hardware sales rose 1.7% (7.9% y/y) following a 0.9% decline while machinery sales rose 1.4% (7.3% y/y) following a 1.0% March rise. Moving lower, motor vehicle sales fell 0.9% (-0.6% y/y) after a 0.5% drop. Metals sales fell 1.7% (-2.0% y/y) after a 1.9% rise. Electrical equipment sales declined 0.6% (+19.4% y/y) following a 2.9% rise. Sales of nondurable goods improved 0.1% (3.8% y/y) after rising 0.4% in March. Sales of apparel strengthened 1.2% (3.8% y/y) after falling 0.8%. Grocery store sales increased 1.3% (6.6% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Paper sales improved 1.0% during April (1.4% y/y) after falling 1.5% in March. Drug sales rose 0.3% (13.0% y/y) after rising 3.4% in March. Moving lower, chemical sales fell 0.5% (-1.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise while petroleum sales weakened 2.4% (-9.9% y/y) after declining 5.3% in March.
The April inventory to sales ratio in the wholesale sector was 1.3 for the third straight month. The durable goods I/S ratio was 1.69 for a second month, down from the 1.81 high in March of last year. The ratio ranged from a 2.84 high for machinery to 0.97 for electrical equipment. The nondurable goods I/S ratio was 0.93, also for a second month. The I/S ratio for apparel was 2.10 in April while for petroleum it was 0.31.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are from the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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