U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit is deepest since June.
- Exports decline while imports rise.
- Petroleum imports strengthen.
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) increased to $78.2 billion during October from $74.1 billion in September, revised from $73.3 billion. The deficit remained below the $106.9 billion record in March. An $80.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports declined 0.7% (+13.6% y/y) in October after falling 1.2% in September. Imports rose 0.6% (13.9% y/y) after rising 1.6% in September.
The goods trade deficit (customs value) widened to $98.8 billion in October from $92.6 billion in September. The latest figure compared to the advance estimate of a $99.0 billion deficit issued last week. Exports of goods fell 2.0% (+11.0% y/y) after a 2.2% decline in September. Exports of industrial supplies declined 3.3% (+21.3% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods exports weakened 9.2% (-6.2% y/y). To the upside, exports of foods, feeds & beverages improved 4.0% (-4.6% y/y) while auto exports rose 2.8% (11.2% y/y). Capital goods exports held steady (+10.0% y/y).
Imports of goods (customs value) rose 1.0% (12.7% y/y), about the same as in September. Foods, feeds & beverage imports increased 2.9% (11.1% y/y). Auto imports increased 1.9% (29.6% y/y) in October and industrial supplies imports rose 1.6% (13.4% y/y). Capital goods imports excluding autos eased 0.6% (+14.6% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods imports fell 0.9% (+7.0% y/y). Nonpetroleum goods imports increased 1.0% (12.2% y/y) while petroleum imports also rose 1.0% (18.6% y/y).
The services trade surplus increased to $21.4 in October from $19.4 billion in September. Total services exports rose 2.3% (18.1% y/y). Travel exports increased 6.2% (105.4% y/y) while charges for the use of intellectual property improved 1.1% (-1.8 y/y). Financial services exports gained 0.6% (-4.4% y/y). Imports of services eased 0.4% (18.0% y/y) in October. Travel imports strengthened rose 0.6% (76.9% y/y) while charges for the use of intellectual property gained 0.9% (17.5% y/y). Financial services imports fell 0.6% (+6.7% y/y).
The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit widened to $112.6 billion (chained 2012 dollars) in October from $104.3 billion September. Exports fell 2.5% (+4.8% y/y) while imports rose 1.6% (8.2% y/y).
The goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $26.1 billion in October from $32.1 billion in September. Exports fell 1.8% y/y while imports declined 8.1% y/y. The trade deficit with Japan widened to $6.4 billion in October. The goods trade deficit with the European Union surged to a record $23.1 billion from $16.0 billion in September. These figures date back to January 2009.
The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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