U.S. Retail Sales Show Resilience in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Nonauto sales strengthen.
- Sales growth in retail control group accelerates.
- Clothing and nonstore sales are notably strong.
Total retail sales increased 0.6% (5.0% y/y) in August following a 0.6% July rise, revised from 0.5%, and a 1.0% June strengthening, revised from 0.9%. The gain compared to a 0.3% increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Firm sales gains were widespread last month. Sales excluding autos rose 0.7% in August (4.9% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in July, revised from 0.3%, and improving 0.9% in June, revised from 0.8%.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, rose 0.7% (5.9% y/y) in August after an unrevised 0.5% July rise and a 0.9% June gain, revised from 0.8%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts.
Light vehicle sales increased 0.5% (5.6% y/y) in August after rising 1.7% in July, following a 1.2% June strengthening. This compares to a 3.0% decline (+7.0% y/y) in unit sales of motor vehicles last month which followed a 7.6% July increase. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.5% (-0.7% y/y) in August after increasing 0.9% in July. Gasoline prices rose 0.8% (-4.7% y/y) last month after falling 1.2% in July. Sales of building materials & garden equipment edged 0.1% higher (-2.3% y/y) after falling 0.9% in July.
Elsewhere, sales were generally firm last month. Nonstore retail sales strengthened 2.0% (10.1% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in July. Clothing store sales increased 1.0% (8.3% y/y) following two consecutive months of 1.4% increase. Sporting goods & hobby shop sales increased 0.8% (4.7% y/y) after surging 1.6% in July. Sales at electronics & appliance stores rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) after jumping 1.2% in July. On the weaker side, general merchandise store sales eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) after they held steady in July, and department store sales fell 0.8% (-1.0% y/y) after rising 1.1%. Furniture & home furnishings sales slipped 0.3% (+5.2% y/y) in August following a 1.6% increase. Miscellaneous store sales fell 1.1% (+10.7% y/y) last month after slipping 0.2% in July.
In the nondiscretionary sales sector, food & beverage store sales rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) last month following a 0.5% rise in July. Health & personal care store sales eased 0.1% (+5.1% y/y) last month after improving 0.4% in July.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.7% (6.5% y/y) in August after slipping 0.1% in July.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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