U.S. Retail Sales Increase Disappoints in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Core sales hold steady.
- Vehicle sales increase.
- Gasoline sales rise with higher prices.
Retail sales rose 0.6% (1.5% y/y) during February after falling 1.1% in January, revised from a 0.8% decline, and a 0.1% December uptick, revised from a 0.4% gain. A 0.8% February increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts rose 0.3% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% in January, revised from a 0.6% decline and a 0.1% December uptick, revised from 0.4%. Nonauto sales had been expected to rise 0.4%.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, were unchanged (+2.2% y/y) last month after falling 0.3% in January, revised from a 0.4% decline. December sales rose 0.3%, revised from a 0.6% gain.
Sales of building materials & garden equipment strengthened 2.2% (-6.1% y/y) after falling 4.3% during January. Also strong were motor vehicle & parts sales which rose 1.6% (1.4% y/y) after falling 2.1% in January. The rise compared to a 6.2% m/m increase in unit motor vehicle purchases. Electronics & appliance store sales also were firm and posted a 1.5% rise (1.9% y/y) which came after January’s 2.8% gain. Gasoline & service station sales rose 0.9% (-4.5% y/y) after they fell during each of the prior four months. General merchandise store sales improved 0.4% (0.7% y/y) after easing slightly in January. Department store sales fell, however, by 0.2% (-4.4% y/y) after strong increases in both of the prior two months. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales held steady (-3.0% y/y) falling 0.4% in January.
Working lower last month were furniture & home furnishings store which fell 1.1% (-10.1% y/y) after rising 0.2% in January. Clothing & accessory store sales also were off by 0.5% in February (+1.3% y/y) after a 0.8% decline in the prior month. Sales of online retailers eased 0.1% (6.4% y/y) after a 0.3% January decline.
Sales were soft in the nondiscretionary sales categories. Health & personal care store sales declined 0.3% in February (+1.7% y/y), following two months of sharp decline. Food & beverage store sales edged 0.1% higher (0.4% y/y) after a 0.3% January decline.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved 0.4% last month (6.3% y/y) after falling 1.0% in January.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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