U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
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Sales post weakest result since December.
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Lower auto & gasoline sales hold back total.
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Nonauto sales generally improve.
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y) after increasing 0.8% during June, revised from 1.0%. May's result was revised to 0.4% from -0.1%. A 0.2% increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales improved 0.4% (12.3% y/y) after a 0.9% June rise, revised from 1.0%. May's sales rose 1.3%, revised from 0.6%. No change in nonauto sales had been expected in July.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts declined 1.6% in July (+2.1% y/y) following a 0.5% June increase. This compares to a 2.1% gain (-8.8% y/y) in unit sales of motor vehicles. Gasoline service station sales declined 1.8% (+39.9% y/y) as prices fell, following two straight months of strong increase. Excluding autos & gasoline, retail sales rose 0.7% (9.3% y/y), the same as in June.
In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, sales increased 0.8% (8.7% y/y) in July after a 0.7% June rise and a 0.8% May increase. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Sales gains were mixed last month across product categories. Nonstore retail sales surged 2.7% (20.2% y/y), the fourth straight month of strong increase. Building materials store sales improved 1.5% (10.1% y/y) after easing 0.5% in June. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.4% (-9.9% y/y) after a 0.1% easing. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y) after two straight months of decline. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales edged 0.1% higher (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.6% in June. Elsewhere, sales declined during July. Clothing & accessory store sales fell 0.6% last month (+2.3% y/y) after a 0.9% June increase. General merchandise store sales weakened 0.7% in July (0.5% y/y), the third decline in four months.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (8.4% y/y) in July after a 0.9% increase in June. Health & personal care store sales increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) following a 1.5% June gain.
Consumers' interest in dining out diminished last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.1% (11.6% y/y) in July after a 0.8% increase in June.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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