U.S. ISM Services Index Rebounds in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Business activity & employment recover.
- New orders & supplier deliveries weaken.
- Price index slips.
The Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management rose to 56.5 during November after falling to 54.4 in October. The figure remained below the peak of 68.4 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 53.4 for November. Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading released on Thursday. This index rose to 55.7 last month from 54.0 in October but remained well below its November 2021 high of 67.6. These series date back to July 1997.
In the latest services survey, the business activity index rose to 64.7 after falling to 55.7 and stood at the highest level in eleven months. An increased 33.4% of respondent (NSA) reported higher activity while a lessened 9.7% reported it lower. The employment index improved to 51.5 and retraced most of its decline to 49.1 in October. A steady 21.3% of respondents reported more jobs while A lessened 20.8% indicated fewer jobs.
Moving lower, the new order index eased to 56.0, a five-month low. Thirty percent of respondents reported new orders (NSA) while 20.0% reported fewer orders. Also falling, the supplier deliveries index fell to 53.8 (NSA) in November and reversed all of its October rise to 56.2. It remained down from 75.7 in November of last year. An increased 10.3% of respondents reported faster delivery speeds while a lessened 17.8% reported slower speeds.
Pricing power eased as the prices index fell to 70.0 in November from 70.7 in October and remained down from a record 84.6 in April. A lessened 42.7% (NSA) of respondents reported price increases and a fairly steady 6.6% reported price declines.
The new export orders index plunged to 38.4 in November from to 47.7 in October, off sharply for the second straight month. It was the lowest reading since April 2020. The imports index increased to 59.5 to after easing to 50.4 in October. The order backlog index slipped to 51.8, the lowest level since March 2021. The inventory change index rose slightly to 47.8, still indicating inventory decumulation. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.
The ISM figures are available in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the SURVEYS database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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