U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Jump in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Unexpected rise is to highest level since August of last year.
- Continued claims increase to three-week high.
- Insured unemployment rate remains steady & low.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 231,000 in the week ended May 4 from 209,000 in the prior week, revised from 208,000. It was the highest level since the last week of August 2023 and compared to expectations for 210,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 215,000 from 210,250 in the prior week. It was the highest level since the second week of February, up from a low of 200,750 early in January.
The number of continued claims for unemployment insurance, also called “insured unemployment,” rose to 1.785 million in the week ended April 27 from 1.768 million in the prior week, revised from 1.774 million. It was the highest level in three weeks. The four-week moving average edged lower to 1.781 million, the lowest level since the third week of January.
The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment benefits recipients as a percent of covered employment, held at 1.2% in the week of April 27. This rate has been steady at 1.2% since March 11, 2023.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely among individual states. In the week of April 20, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.39%), California (2.28%), Rhode Island (2.24%), Massachusetts (1.90%), Minnesota (1.68%) and Illinois (1.65%). The lowest rates were in Kansas (0.31%), South Dakota (0.34%), Florida (0.37%), North Carolina (0.41%), Virginia (0.41%) and Alabama (0.43%). Rates in other prominent states include Arizona (0.79%), Texas (1.03%), Pennsylvania (1.48%), Connecticut (1.49%) and New York (1.66%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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