U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady in May While Export Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sharp decline in imported fuel costs is offset by increases in other products.
- Export price decline reflects lower petroleum prices.
Import prices were unchanged during May after rising 0.1% in April, and falling 0.4% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year increase picked up to 0.2% but remained below the recent high of 2.2% in December. Export prices fell 0.9% during May after an unrevised 0.1% April gain. A 0.2% decline had been expected. The y/y rise eased to 1.7% from 1.9% in April and was the slowest gain since November.
The steady import price index in May included a 4.0% drop (-15.8% y/y) in imported fuel prices, the third consecutive month of sharp decline. The decline in imported fuel costs reflected a 9.0% fall (+88.4% y/y) in natural gas, a 2.7% drop (-18.8% y/y) in fuel oil costs, a 3.7% decline (-17.4% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum products and a 5.4% drop (-17.1% y/y) in crude oil prices. Nonfuel import prices fell 0.2% (+7.7% y/y) in May following a 17% April increase. Import prices for nonfuel industrial supplies & materials rose 1.3% (5.4% y/y) and capital goods rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y), but foods, feeds & beverages prices declined 0.3% (+6.9% y/y). Import prices for automotive vehicles & parts edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) and consumer goods excluding autos increased 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) after rising 0.3% in April.
The May decline in export prices reflected a 1.0% (1.7% y/y) drop in nonagricultural prices following a 0.1% dip. Petroleum & petroleum product prices fell 3.8% (-11.4% y/y). Industrial supplies & materials export prices dropped 2.9% (+1.0% y/y) in May, down for the third straight month. In contrast, agricultural export prices rose 0.2% (1.8%) following a 0.4% gain in April. The cost of capital goods rose 0.4% (1.9% y/y) after two straight 0.3% increases. Prices of consumer goods excluding autos rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.7% rise, while automotive vehicles & parts prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.9% April gain. Foods, feeds & beverages prices rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in April.
These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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