U.S. Housing Starts Fall Sharply in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Decline in single-family starts again exceeds drop in multi-family sector.
- Regional changes are mixed.
- Building permits continue to trend downward.
Total housing starts fell 4.2% (-8.8% y/y) during October to 1.425 million (SAAR) from 1.488 million in September, revised from 1.439 million. Starts in August were revised to 1.508 million from 1.566 million. Starts in October were 21.1% lower last month than the April 2022 peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.41 million starts in October.
Single-family starts weakened 6.1% (-20.8% y/y) in October to 855,000 after falling 1.3% to 911,000 in September. Single-family starts were 34.6% below their December 2020 peak. Multi-family starts declined 1.2% (+17.8% y/y) to 570,000 after falling 1.4% in September. They were 9.8% below the April 2022 peak.
Housing starts remained regionally mixed. In the Northeast, starts declined 34.7% (-15.8% y/y) to 96,000 after a 17.4% drop in September. October starts in the Midwest were off 11.1% (-13.6% y/y) to 185,000, after rising 13.7% in each of the prior two months. Starts in the West fell 10.6% last month (-19.6% y/y) to 336,000 following a 6.5% rise. Working 6.7% higher (-1.1% y/y) to 808,000 were starts in the South, recapturing a 4.7% September shortfall.
Building permits declined 2.4% (-10.1% y/y) during October to 1.526 million after rising 1.4% in September. Single-family permits weakened 3.6% (-22.1% y/y) to 839,000. It was the eighth straight consecutive monthly decline. Multi-family permits eased 1.0% (+10.6% y/y) to 687,000 after rising 8.1% in September.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The Economic Outlook and a Word of Caution on Inflation from Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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