Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| Feb 12 2024

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in January

  • Deficit is smallest since in five months.
  • Revenues rise y/y as individual tax receipts improve.
  • Most Federal programs report strong outlay growth.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $21.9 billion in January 2024 compared to a $38.8 billion deficit in January 2023. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $21.0 billion deficit. In the first four months of the current fiscal year, the deficit totaled $531.9 billion versus $460.2 billion last year.

Overall revenues increased 7.6% y/y this fiscal year as individual income tax receipts rose 5.3% y/y so far in FY’24. The level of corporate tax receipts rose by roughly one-third versus the first four months of last year. Social insurance revenues improved a steady 5.8% y/y and excise taxes rose 9.3% y/y so far in FY’24. Customs duties fell 11.5% y/y, continuing the decline since late-2022.

Federal government outlays increased 9.5% y/y so far in FY’24. Defense spending rose 12.7% this fiscal year following a 7.0% rise in FY’23. Medicare payments increased 13.3% y/y while Social Security outlays rose 10.6%. Interest payments strengthened by 45.9% y/y so far in FY’24. Offsetting these increases, income security outlays fell 28.5% y/y this year and health program spending was little changed y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.

  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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