U.S. Government Budget Deficit Narrows in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revenues increase sharply y/y.
- Spending collapses versus FY'22.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $87.8 billion during October following a deficit of $429.7 billion in September. It was the smallest deficit since May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $90.0 billion deficit for October.
Overall revenues improved 12.2% y/y last month following their 21.0% y/y rise during all of last fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts rose 21.8% y/y after the 28.8% y/y rise in FY'22, lifted by higher employment. Corporate tax payments declined 6.9% y/y following a surge last year with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 8.5% y/y after a 12.9% increase in FY'22 and excise taxes grew 4.0% y/y after rising 16.5% last fiscal year.
Federal government outlays declined 9.5% y/y in October after falling 8.1% y/y in FY'22. Income security payments fell 39.1% y/y after the level halved in FY'22 with the absence of economic stimulus checks. National defense outlays grew 11.3% y/y after a 1.6% y/y rise in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 1.3% y/y after a 14.8% gain in FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 8.4% y/y in October following a 7.4% rise last fiscal year, Medicare outlays fell by two-thirds y/y after 8.4% y/y growth in FY'22. Interest payments surged 43.8% y/y in October following a 34.9% y/y gain during the last fiscal year.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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