U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revenues decline sharply m/m.
- Outlays surge m/m but fall y/y.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $248.5 billion during November following a deficit of $191.3 during November FY’22. For the first two months of the current fiscal year, the government ran a budget deficit of $336.4 billion versus a deficit of $356.4 billion early last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $248.0 billion deficit for November.
Overall revenues declined 20.8% in November but were up 1.0% so far during FY’23 versus FY’22. Individual income tax receipts rose a greatly lessened 2.5% y/y so far in FY’23. Corporate tax payments increased 14.2% y/y this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 3.3% y/y and excise taxes grew 3.7% y/y so far in FY’23.
Federal government outlays increased 23.2% in November and declined 1.6% y/y so far in FY’23. Income security payments fell 33.1% y/y after the level halved in FY'22 with the absence of economic stimulus checks. National defense outlays grew 4.4% y/y so far in FY’23. Outlays on health programs rose 1.1% y/y. Social Security outlays increased 8.7% y/y so far in FY’23. Medicare outlays fell 22.1% y/y. Interest payments rose by one-half y/y do far in FY’23.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Inflation Expectations Decline Across All Horizons; Income and Labor Market Expectations Strengthen from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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