U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Slide
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices continue to weaken.
- Crude oil prices fall to January low.
- Natural gas prices increase modestly.
Retail gasoline prices declined last week to $3.53 per gallon (+4.6% y/y) after falling to $3.65 per gallon during the previous week. Prices have been declining since the mid-June peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail cost of diesel fuel fell nine cents (+38.2% y/y) last week to $5.14 per gallon. The price reached a peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell to an average $78.70 per barrel (+1.1% y/y) in the week ended November 25 from $84.00 per barrel in the prior week. It was the lowest price since the first week of January, down from a high of $120.46 in the second week of June. Yesterday, the price was $77.24 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil fell to $86.52 per barrel last week (+7.8% y/y) from $92.09 in the prior week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June. Yesterday, the price was $83.50 per barrel.
The price of natural gas rose last week to $6.36/mmbtu (29.8% y/y) after surging to $6.06/mmbtu in the previous week. It was the highest price since the end of September. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August and were up from a low of $3.56/mmbtu in the last week of December, 2021. Yesterday, the price was $6.00/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended November 18, gasoline demand declined 7.0% from a year earlier after falling 5.3% y/y during the prior four weeks. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of last year. Demand for all petroleum products edged 0.1% higher y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries increased 5.0% y/y.
Gasoline inventories eased 0.2% y/y in the week of November 18, while crude oil inventories declined 20.8% y/y.
Measured in days' supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended November 18 rose w/w to 24.3 days but had been declining steadily from 29.2 days in early-February. The supply of crude oil fell to 26.8 days and remained down from 41.8 days in early-March of last year.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in USENERGY.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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