U.S. Federal Government Posts Budget Surplus in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Federal receipts strengthen while outlays decline.
- Customs duties increase but interest payments slow.
- Year-to-date deficit increases.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget surplus of $27.0 billion during June, which compared to a deficit of $71.0 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $43.5 deficit. During the first nine months of the current fiscal year, the government ran a budget deficit of $1.337 trillion versus a deficit of $1.273 trillion in the first nine months of FY’24.
Overall revenues in the first nine months of FY’25 increased 6.8% y/y compared to a 10.0% y/y rise in the first nine months of last year. Customs duties surged 94.3% y/y in the first nine months of FY’25 after an 8.0% y/y decline last fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts rose 9.2% y/y compared to last year’s 11.3% y/y gain. The level of corporate tax receipts fell 6.7% y/y so far this year after a 28.4% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY’24. Social insurance revenues increased 3.1% y/y after a 5.2% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY’24, while excise taxes rose 17.3% y/y so far in FY’25 compared to an 8.1% gain in the first nine months of last fiscal year.
Federal government outlays grew 6.3% y/y so far in FY’25 versus a 4.6% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY’24. Defense spending rose 6.0% y/y after a 5.5% y/y rise in the first nine months of last fiscal year. Social Security outlays rose 8.4% y/y in the first nine months of FY’25 versus an 8.2% increase last fiscal year. Interest payments rose 9.7% y/y so far in FY’25 after a 38.1% rise in the first nine months of last fiscal year. Health program spending rose 6.7% y/y after falling 0.5% in the first nine months of FY’24 while Medicare payments surged 15.0% y/y versus a 1.0% y/y decline last year. Income security outlays rose 9.2% y/y in the first nine months of this year compared to an 18.5% y/y decline last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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