U.S. Federal Budget Deficit Deepens in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Monthly deficit is well above expectations.
- Revenues rise moderately while outlays surge.
- Deficit increases in first eleven months of FY’25.
The Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $344.8 billion for August after a $291.1 billion July deficit. Revenues rose 1.7% last month while outlays grew 9.4%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $240.0 billion deficit in August.
During the first eleven months of FY’25, the deficit rose to $1.973 trillion from $1.897 trillion in the first eleven months of FY’24. Federal gov’t receipts rose 6.8% y/y in the first eleven months to $4.691 trillion compared to 10.6% in FY’24. Individual income tax receipts rose 8.3% y/y compared to last year’s 11.3% y/y gain. The level of corporate tax receipts fell 7.5% y/y so far this year after a 29.9% y/y rise in the first eleven months FY’24. Social insurance revenues increased 3.0% y/y after a 5.6% y/y rise in FY’24, and excise taxes rose 4.5% y/y so far in FY’25 compared to a 29.9 gain last year. Customs duties rose 136.7% y/y in the first 11 months of FY’25 after a 5.3% y/y decline in FY’24.
Federal government outlays grew 6.0% y/y to $6.664 trillion so far in FY’25 versus a 14.4% rise this far in FY’24. Defense spending rose 5.4% y/y after an 8.4% y/y rise last fiscal year. Social Security outlays rose 8.3% y/y so far in FY’25 versus a 7.9% gain last year. Interest payments rose 10.7% y/y so far in FY’25 after a 33.9% rise in most of last fiscal year. Health program spending rose 7.4% y/y after rising 1.5% in FY’24, while Medicare payments surged 13.5% y/y after a 16.4% y/y rise in the first eleven months of last year. Income security outlays rose 5.5% y/y with all but one month left in FY’25 compared to an 11.6% y/y decline in the first eleven months of FY’24.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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