U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Sharply in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Sales post their fourth consecutive decline.
• Most regions see fewer sales.
• Median sales price continues to strengthen.
Existing home sales declined 3.4% (-8.6% y/y) during May to 5.41 million (SAAR) from 5.60 million in April, revised from 5.61 million. It was the lowest level of sales since June 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 5.40 million sales in May.
The National Association of Realtors "... anticipates a further decline in home sales. The impact of higher mortgage rates is not yet fully reflected in the data."
The fall in existing home sales was led by a 3.6% decline (-7.7% y/y) in single-family home sales to 4.80 million, the lowest level since June 2020. Sales of condos and co-ops eased 1.6% (-15.3% y/y), the same as they did in April. They fell to 610,000 units, down from 740,000 in January.
Home sales declined in most regions of the country m/m and all are down sharply from January highs. Sales in the Midwest fell 5.3% (-7.5% y/y) to 1.24 million in May and were down 17.3% from January. In the West, sales also fell 5.3% in May (-10.0% y/y) to 1.08 million, down 15.0% from January. In the South, home sales weakened 2.8% to 2.41 million (-8.4% y/y), off 18.0% since the start of the year. Moving higher during May were existing home sales in the Northeast which improved 1.5% (-9.3% y/y) to 680,000. Still, they were off 12.8% since January.
The number of existing homes on the market rose 12.6% (NSA) to 1.16 million, but they were down 4.1% y/y. The months' supply of homes on the market rose slightly to 2.6 at the current selling rate. These figures date back to January 1999.
The median price of an existing home increased 3.1% to a record $407,600 last month, up 14.8% y/y. The price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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