U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices move higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas prices continue to weaken.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades rose to $3.25 per gallon (-8.4%) in the week ended February 5 from $3.21 in the prior week. Prices have risen from a low of $3.18 in the middle of last month. The recent high stands at $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel edged up to an average $3.90 per gallon (-14.1% y/y) last week from $3.87 in the prior week. These are higher than a recent low of $3.77 per gallon in the week ended July 3, 2023.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to an average $75.50 per barrel (-1.3% y/y) in the week ended February 2 from an average $76.18 in the prior week. It was increased from a low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023 but remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was seen in the week of July 4, 2008, at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $72.78 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil rose to $82.57 per barrel (0.9% y/y) in the week ended February 2 from $82.31 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023, to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday the price was $81.70 per barrel. Yesterday the price was $79.30 per barrel.
Natural gas prices fell to an average of $2.20/mmbtu (-16.7% y/y) in the week ended February 2 from $2.37/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices in the latest week compare to a recent high of $3.20 for the average of the October 13 week and a low of $1.93 in the week of June 2, 2023. Yesterday, the natural gas price was $2.12/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand rose 1.2% y/y in the four-weeks ended January 26 versus 3.7% y/y in the four weeks ended January 19. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.1% y/y after increasing 3.3% y/y in the four week period ended January 19. Crude oil input to refineries rose 6.5% y/y in the four weeks ended January 26 after an 11.7% y/y increase in the prior four-week period.
Gasoline inventories increased 8.3% y/y in the week of January 26 following a 9.0% y/y increase in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 14.7% y/y in the January 26 week after falling 15.6% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased 5.5% y/y in the week of January 26 following a 5.2% y/y decline one week earlier.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories were 31.2 days in the week of January 26, steady with the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories were 26.7 days of supply in the week of January 26, up from 25.8 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023, and a recent low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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