U.S. Durable Goods Orders Flat in January, Driven by a Plunge in Defense Aircraft Orders
Summary
- Headline orders -0.04% (+10.3% y/y) in Jan.; -0.9% (+10.6% y/y) in Dec.
- Defense aircraft orders -23.7% m/m in Jan. vs. +11.9% in Dec.; nondefense aircraft & parts +3.8% vs. -22.8%.
- Transportation orders -0.9%, third m/m fall in four mths.; orders ex transportation +0.4%, ninth straight m/m rise.
- Core capital goods shipments -0.1% following four consecutive m/m gains.
- Durable goods shipments +0.6%; unfilled orders +0.8%; inventories +0.2%.
New orders for durable goods were essentially unchanged m/m in January after a 0.9% decline in December (-1.4% initially) and a 5.4% rebound in November (unrevised), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m January increase. The year-on-year rate eased to 10.3% in January from 10.6% in December, remaining positive since January 2025 (3.8%). Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (5.7% y/y) in January, the ninth straight m/m rise, after a 1.3% advance in December. Durable goods orders excluding defense grew 0.5% (9.5% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, following a 1.9% December decline.
The flat reading in January durable goods orders reflected a 23.7% m/m plunge in orders for defense aircraft & parts following a 11.9% jump in December and a 3.5% increase in November. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 3.8% after a 22.8% December drop and a 98.2% November surge. Orders excluding aircraft grew 0.2% (6.5% y/y), the sixth m/m gain in seven months, after a 1.5% December rebound.
Durable goods orders for transportation fell 0.9% (+20.0% y/y) in January after a 4.6% fall in December, and orders for motor vehicles & parts fell 0.4% (+8.0% y/y) after a 1.4% December gain; both posted the third m/m decline in four months. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components slid 0.6% (+7.6% y/y) in January following two consecutive m/m increases. In contrast, orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.8% (7.8% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 3.4% December increase. Orders for primary metals rose 0.8% (8.8% y/y) following a 2.4% December gain and two successive m/m declines. Orders for fabricated metal products climbed 0.6% (6.1% y/y), the seventh consecutive m/m gain, after a 0.9% December advance. Orders for all other durable goods increased 0.3% (1.5% y/y), up for the fifth consecutive month, after a 0.4% December gain. Machinery orders grew 0.2% (6.2% y/y), the ninth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.3% December increase.
Capital goods orders fell 1.1% (+18.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 3.2% decline in December. Nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.9% (17.4% y/y) following a 6.7% December decrease. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) were flat (+4.3% y/y) after a 0.8% December increase (the sixth straight m/m gain). Defense capital goods orders dropped 11.8% (+29.2% y/y), down for the third time in four months, following a 21.6% December rebound. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—edged down 0.1% (+5.4% y/y), the first m/m easing since August, following a 1.0% December increase.
Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.7% gain in December. Durable goods shipments grew 0.6% (6.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 1.2% December rebound. Nondurable goods shipments rose 0.4% (-1.2% y/y) following a 0.1% December uptick and four consecutive m/m declines.
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, the sixth straight m/m gain, after a 0.9% rise in December. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.4% (1.9% y/y), also up for the sixth consecutive month, following a 0.4% December rise.
Manufacturing inventories inched up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in January, the third successive m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in December. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month in January, while nondurable goods inventories dipped 0.1% (-0.5% y/y), the fourth m/m easing in five months, after a 0.2% December decline.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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