U.S. CPI Increase Weakens in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Consumer price inflation continues to ease. The November Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% higher during November versus expectations for a 0.3% gain. The 7.1% y/y increase is down from a peak 9.1% y/y rise in June. The latest gain followed two months of 0.4% increase. The CPI less food & energy also exhibited weakness as it rose 0.2% versus an expected 0.3% rise. The y/y rise decelerated to 6.0% from a peak 6.6% in September. The gain came after rising 0.3% in October.
A 1.6% decline (+13.1% y/y) in energy prices provided downward pressure on last month’s CPI as it came after a 1.8% October increase. Gasoline prices fell 2.0% (+10.1% y/y) after a 4.0% increase. Fuel oil prices rose 1.7% (65.7% y/y) after strengthening 19.8%. Electricity prices eased 0.2% (+13.7% y/y) after rising 0.1% while natural gas prices fell 3.5% (+15.5% y/y) following a 4.6% October decline.
Amongst other component categories, there were offsetting pressures during November. Goods prices excluding food & energy fell 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after falling 0.4% in October. Used car & truck prices declined 2.9% (-3.3% y/y) after sharp declines in each of the prior two months. New car & truck prices held steady (7.2% y/y) after rising 0.4% in October and apparel prices rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y) following two months of decline.
For consumer services, prices rose 0.4% (6.8% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. Shelter prices rose 0.6% (7.1% y/y) after a 0.8% gain. Rent prices rose 0.8% (7.9% y/y) after a 0.7% gain while owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.7% (7.1% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in October. Medical care service costs fell 0.7% (+4.4% y/y) after a 0.6% October decline while recreation services prices rose 1.0% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.8% October rise. Transportation service costs eased 0.1% (+14.2% y/y) as airline fares fell 3.0% (+36.0% y/y) following a 1.1% October decline.
On the food price front, overall costs rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y) after a 0.6% rise in October. Egg prices strengthened 2.3% (49.1% y/y) after surging 10.1% in October while dairy prices improved 1.0% (16.4% y/y) after easing 0.1%. The cost of fresh fruits & vegetables rose 1.4% (9.7% y/y) after a 0.9% October decline. Offsetting these gains, meat, poultry & fish prices fell 0.4% (+4.3% y/y) after easing 0.1% in October. Nonalcoholic beverage prices improved 0.7% (13.2% y/y) after rising 0.5% in October.
The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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