U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Moderates in September

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.4% in August and 0.2% in July. The increase fell short of the 0.4% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Nevertheless, the 3.0% y/y increase in the headline CPI was the strongest since January and up from 2.3% in April. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% in September after 0.3% gains in both August and July. A 0.3% increase had been expected. The 3.0% y/y rise compared to 3.1% in August, up from 2.8% gains from March through May.

Energy prices rose 1.5% (2.8% y/y) last month after increasing 0.7% in August. Gasoline prices strengthened 4.1% (-0.5% y/y) after rising 1.9% in August. Fuel oil prices improved 0.6% (4.1% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August. Natural gas prices fell 1.2% (+11.7% y/y) following a 1.6% decline, and electricity prices eased 0.5% (+5.1% y/y) after a 0.2% August gain.

Food prices rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) last month increasing 0.5% in August. Egg prices declined 4.7% (-1.3% y/y), after holding steady. Meat, poultry & fish prices strengthened 0.8% (6.0% y/y) after strengthening 1.1%, while dairy product prices fell 0.5% (+0.7% y/y), after edging 0.1% higher in August. Cereal & bakery product costs increased 0.7% (1.6% y/y) following a 0.1% gain while fruit & vegetable prices held steady (+1.3% y/y), after rising 1.6% in August. Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.7% (5.3% y/y) in September after rising 0.6% in August.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in September after a 0.3% increase. The 1.5% y/y price rise compared to a 1.9% y/y decline in both July and August of 2024. Appliance prices rose 0.8% (1.3% y/y), after gaining 0.4%. Home furnishings prices rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) after a 0.1% improvement in August. Recreation product costs increased 0.4% (0.8% y/y) in last month, after holding steady. Apparel prices increased 0.7% (-0.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.5%. Education & communication product costs declined 0.8% (-4.0% y/y), the third straight month of decline. Medical care goods prices eased 0.1% (NSA, +0.7% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.4% (+5.1% y/y) last month, after rising 1.0% in August, while new vehicle costs rose 0.2% (0.8% y/y) after a 0.3% increase.

Services prices less energy increased 0.2% in September (3.5% y/y) after rising 0.3% in August. Shelter prices (35.5% of the CPI) rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y) for the third month in the last four, as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences edged 0.1% higher (3.8% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. The cost of lodging away from home strengthened 1.3% in September (-0.1% y/y), after a 2.3% increase. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y) in September after two months of 0.3% gain. Transportation service prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) after jumping 1.0% and the cost of motor vehicle insurance fell 0.4% (+3.1% y/y) in September, after holding steady. Public transportation costs surged 1.6% (1.8% y/y) after rising 3.6% during August. The cost of medical services rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after slipping 0.1%, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.4% (4.4% y/y) after falling 0.2% in August. Education & communication services prices edged up 0.1% (1.1% y/y) as they did in August.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.