U.S. Consumer Price Index & Core Prices Rise Minimally in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Annual total & core gains remain on downward trend.
- Food prices increase but energy costs fall sharply.
- Core goods prices are unchanged and service price gain eases.
The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% higher in May after rising 0.2% in April and slipping 0.1% in March. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase in the headline CPI of 2.4% in May compared to 2.3% in April, both are the weakest y/y gains since February 2021 and below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy also edged 0.1% higher last month after a 0.2% April increase and a 0.1% March uptick. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The steady 2.8% y/y gain remained the weakest rise in core prices in four years, well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.
Energy prices fell 1.0% (-3.5% y/y) last month after rising 0.7% in April. Gasoline prices weakened 2.6% (-12.0% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in April. Fuel oil prices rose 0.9% (-8.6% y/y) after rising 1.3% in April. Natural gas prices slumped 1.0% (15.3% y/y) following a 3.7% gain, and electricity prices gained 0.9% (4.5% y/y) after rising 0.8% in April.
Food prices rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) in May after a 0.1% slip during April. Egg prices fell 2.7% (+41.5% y/y) following a 12.7% decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices eased 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) after holding steady, while dairy product prices slipped 0.1% (+1.7% y/y) after falling 0.2% in April. Cereal & bakery product costs rose 1.1% (1.0% y/y) after a 0.5% decline while fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.3% (-0.5% y/y), following a 0.4% decline. Nonalcoholic beverage prices fell 0.3% (+3.1% y/y) in May after rising 0.7% in April.
Goods prices less food and energy held steady (+0.3% y/y) during May after rising 0.1% in April. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.5% (+1.8% y/y) last month, the same as during April, while new vehicle costs were off 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) after holding steady during April. Apparel prices declined 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.2% easing. Appliance prices increased 0.8% (-0.8% y/y), the same as in April. Home furnishings prices increased 0.3% (0.6% y/y) after rising 0.2% in April. Recreation product costs rose 0.4% (-1.3% y/y) in May, matching the April increase. Education & communication product costs rose 0.1% last month (-3.8% y/y) after rising 0.3% in April.
Services prices less energy moved up 0.2% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.3% April gain. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) last month after a 0.3% rise as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. The cost of lodging away from home eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y), the same as in April. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after five straight 0.3% increases. Transportation service prices edged 0.2% lower (+2.8% y/y) after rising 0.1% in April reflecting a 0.7% rise (7.0% y/y) in the cost of motor vehicle insurance after it rose 0.6% in April. Public transportation costs declined 2.5% (-5.4% y/y) after falling 1.8% during April. The cost of medical services increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y) after two straight 0.5% increases, but the cost of recreation services eased 0.1% (3.7% y/y) after falling 0.3% in April. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) after falling 0.2% in April.
The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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