U.S. Consumer Credit Surges in April
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Consumer credit strength exceeds expectations.
- Both nonrevolving and revolving credit move notably higher.
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $17.9 billion during April (2.1% y/y) after increasing $8.6 billion in March, revised from $10.2 billion, and falling $0.9 billion in February, revised from a decline of $0.6 billion. An $11.0 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percentage of disposable personal income, consumer credit eased to 22.1% in April, compared to 22.8% one year earlier.
Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $10.2 billion (1.7% y/y) in April after rising $6.8 billion in March. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions declined 7.5% y/y in April after declining 8.2% y/y in March. Finance company debt holdings rose 0.6% y/y after increasing 0.8% y/y in March, while credit union holdings eased 1.6% y/y in April after a 1.9% y/y March decline. Nonrevolving debt of the federal government rose 3.6% y/y following a 3.4% y/y rise in March.
In April, revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, rose $7.6 billion (3.4% y/y) following a rise of $1.8 billion in March. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions fell 2.0% y/y after down 2.4% y/y in March. Revolving credit held by finance companies dropped 11.6% y/y after a 12.2% y/y drop in March, while credit held by credit unions rose 3.9% y/y following a 3.7% y/y gain in March.
The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The Disruptive Economics of AI from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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