U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Increases in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revolving credit growth improves.
- Nonrevolving credit usage eases.
Consumer credit grew $27.1 billion (8.1% y/y) during October after increasing $25.8 billion in September, revised from $25.0 billion. A $28 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income eased to 25.1% from 25.2% in September and remained near the highest since March 2020. It was increased from 19.4% in March 2021.
Revolving consumer credit balances grew $10.1 billion in October (15.0% y/y) after increasing $7.9 billion in September, revised from $8.3 billion. Revolving credit provided by depository institutions (91.0% of the total and mostly credit card debt) advanced 16.5% y/y, roughly the quickest growth since November 1996 and up from paydowns during the four years ended May 2021. Borrowing from credit unions (6.3% of the total) increased 15.0% y/y, up from 1.8% y/y twelve months earlier. Nonfinancial business loans (1.7% of the total) held steady y/y in October. The value of finance company loans (1.0% of loans) fell 17.5% y/y in October.
Nonrevolving consumer credit balances rose $17.0 billion (6.0% y/y) during October after increasing $17.9 billion in September, revised from $16.6 billion. Federal government lending, which issued 41.6% of nonrevolving credit, rose 3.4% y/y, up from 3.0% y/y growth in April. Nonrevolving loans provided by depository institutions (26.3% of credit) grew 7.9% y/y, and growth eased from 10.5% in April. Finance company lending (15.8% of loans) edged 0.2% higher y/y after increasing 8.7% y/y as of April 2021. Growth of credit union nonrevolving loans (15.2% of the total) accelerated to 18.1% y/y in October, the quickest growth since October 2015 and up from 1.8% y/y in April 2020.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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