FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen in Latest Four Weeks
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Prices increase broadly after earlier declines.
- Metals price strength is accompanied by higher oil costs.
- Lumber prices surge but natural rubber prices decline.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.6% (0.4% y/y) during the last four-week period after rising 2.3% in the prior four weeks.
Prices in the Metals group jumped 2.9% (-3.4% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Price strength was broad-based. Aluminum prices rose 4.3% in four weeks (5.1% y/y) while lead prices also gained 4.3% (-5.9% y/y). Since mid-June, tin prices increased 3.0% (-2.7% y/y) while the cost a zinc rose 2.9% (-7.2% y/y). Steel scrap costs gained 2.4% (-11.1% y/y) over four weeks while copper scrap prices rose 0.9% (1.4% y/y).
Crude Oil & Benzene group prices moved 1.9% higher (-14.3% y/y) in the latest four week period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 2.2% to $67.65 per barrel but remained 17.8% lower y/y. It fell to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, strengthened 5.6% (-34.2% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.5% (1.6% y/y) during the last four weeks.
Miscellaneous group prices increased 1.3% (10.6% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) rose 7.8% (15.7% y/y) in four weeks. Framing lumber prices gained 5.4% (37.2% y/y) but natural rubber prices fell 2.9% (+19.0% y/y) in four weeks.
Prices in the Textile group edged 0.3% higher (1.9% y/y) during the last four weeks. Cotton prices rose 1.7% in that same period and 5.5% y/y. Burlap costs improved 0.7% in four weeks and 10.0% y/y.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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