FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Rise Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Lumber costs lead recent increases.
- Crude oil prices continue to strengthen.
- Steel scrap & aluminum prices rise notably.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) strengthened 6.1% during the four weeks ended March 4 and increased 18.3% during the last year. The level of the price index remains at a record high for the series which dates back to January 1985.
Prices in the miscellaneous price group increased by 9.3% during the last four weeks (10.9% y/y). Framing lumber prices surged 30.5% (31.2% y/y) and natural rubber prices strengthened 15.3% (0.1% y/y).
Crude oil & benzene costs surged 8.4% in the last four weeks and 28.9% y/y. Crude oil costs alone gained 18.2% (70.9% y/y) as the cost of crude rose to $104.57 per barrel, up by nearly three-quarters y/y. The price of the petro-chemical benzene improved 10.1% during the last four weeks and rose 32.1% y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 5.4% in the last four weeks and gained 15.7% in the last year.
Prices in the metals group strengthened 7.7% in the last four weeks, up by one-third during the last year. Aluminum costs jumped 14.8% in the recent four weeks and by nearly two-thirds during the last year. The cost of steel scrap rose 12.1% in four weeks and 18.8% y/y while zinc prices improved 4.2% in the last four weeks and 36.1% y/y. Copper scrap prices increased 4.0% in four weeks and by 11.3% y/y.
Prices in the textile group eased 0.5% during the last four weeks but rose 7.4% y/y. Cotton prices fell 4.2% (+39.2% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, improved 1.7% in the last four weeks and rose by 19.0% y/y.
Industrial commodity prices should remain strong. The National Association for Business Economics expects a 4.1% rise in industrial output in 2022 and a 2.6% increase in 2023.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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