FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Retreat in Latest Four Weeks
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Decline is first in three months.
- Crude oil and metals prices move lower.
- Lumber prices improve while textile costs steady.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 0.5% (+2.5% y/y) during the latest four-week period, after rising 0.7% in the prior four weeks. It was the first decline since early-May and accompanied a sideways movement in factory sector production.
Crude Oil & Benzene group prices moved 1.6% lower (-11.2% y/y) in the latest four week period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 3.3% to $65.39 per barrel and remained 11.9% lower y/y. It had fallen to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 1.9% (-30.8% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index eased 0.3% (+3.4% y/y) during the last four weeks.
Prices in the Metals group, prices fell 1.0% (+6.2% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Lead prices declined 4.7% (+0.4% y/y) while copper scrap prices weakened 3.0% (+9.9% y/y). Aluminum prices slipped 0.3% in four weeks (+17.3% y/y), and tin prices fell 0.7% (+12.5% y/y). Working higher, the cost of zinc rose 2.2% (7.8% y/y), and steel scrap costs gained 1.3% (-7.7% y/y) over four weeks.
Miscellaneous group prices were little changed (+6.6% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of natural rubber fell 7.4% (-11.4% y/y) in four weeks, but framing lumber prices gained 5.8% (33.6% y/y). Tallow costs (used in the soap industry) rose 2.4% (32.5% y/y) in four weeks.
Prices in the Textile group edged 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs improved 3.6% in four weeks (3.1% y/y), but cotton prices fell 1.6% (+5.9% y/y) in that same period.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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