FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Weak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Declines remain broad-based.
• Metals & wood prices are notably weak.
• Oil prices continue to strengthen.
Despite improvement in U.S. factory sector activity, the Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) weakened 1.7% during the last four weeks, though prices remained up 4.7% y/y. The decline left the price index 8.7% below its peak in the second week of March.
In the Miscellaneous group, prices weakened 5.7% during the last four weeks, led by a one-quarter decline in framing lumber prices. They have fallen 45.1% during the last year. Natural rubber prices eased 0.5% in four weeks, up 5.3% y/y.
Prices in the Metals group continue to fall, off 4.4% during the last four weeks and 22.8% since the peak in the second week of March. This decline was led by an 18.9% decline in steel scrap prices during the last four weeks while aluminum prices weakened 7.6% during that period. Tin prices fell 1.9%. Moving higher was the price of zinc, which is used in batteries, up 1.6% in four weeks and by nearly one-quarter y/y. Lead prices rose 1.0% in four weeks and copper scrap prices improved 0.4%.
Textile group prices slipped 0.2% in the last four weeks, but remained near thirty-year highs. Cotton prices weakened 2.2% in four weeks but rose by roughly nearly three-quarters y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, rose 1.5% in the last four weeks to a record high.
Offsetting these declines were higher prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group, up 10.2% in four weeks. Rising 5.7% in four weeks was the per barrel price of crude oil to $118.14, which was just below the prior week's high. Prices remained up from $75.80 at the end of 2021. The price of the petro-chemical benzene strengthened 48.1% in four weeks and was 131.2% higher y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices weakened 2.1% in the latest four weeks but have risen 1.9% y/y.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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